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Talladega isn't the greatest place to get off a losing streak.

Not that we're technically on a losing streak; we had Jeff Gordon winning last Saturday night's Phoenix event, which he did, as a +385 favorite. But in an excruciating turn of events, Dale Earnhardt Jr. got caught on in the pits during a late caution, went a lap down, and wound up losing his head-to-head match-up against Greg Biffle, who didn't have nearly the car Junior did, and who trailed the #8 all night. Drat.

So we lost a little money, and now we head to the 'Dega, probably the sport's most random site. It's random, of course, because the Big One is never more than a few laps away: the giant wreck that takes out half the field, since the cars all ride so impossibly close together at 190 mph with restrictor plates on their carburetors. The favorites can lead all day, as did Tony Stewart and Kurt Busch in this year's Daytona 500, only to get slam-drafted late and see the afternoon go up in a puff of tire smoke. It's nerve-rattling for us; imagine how crazy it is for the drivers themselves.

Anyway, we can but try. Here are the best bets for the Aaron's 499 from Talladega.

Last Week: Gordon's win couldn't overcome Junior's terrible luck (which he's now experienced two weeks running), meaning we dropped 0.38 units on 1.5 units wagered. For the season, then, we stand a positive net 1.49 units on 12 units wagered, a return of 12.4%. Note also that if you eschew the conservative betting scheme I outline below, and simply place one unit on every wager I recommend, for the year you'd be up 17.52 units on 32 units wagered, for a 54.8% return. As always, though, be aware that that betting scheme is far riskier on a week-to-week basis.

Take Tony Stewart (+403), 1/6th unit. Smoke is the favorite Sunday for a reason. He had close to the best car at Daytona, but wrecked from the lead and wound up 43rd. Leading up to last fall's Talladega event, he'd finished second in three consecutive races here, though he'd never won. Stewart made all kinds of noise this week about how NASCAR is essentially fixing races by creating phantom cautions in advance of green-flag pit stops, thereby bringing the field together again for late restarts. NASCAR isn't pleased about that, and they won't be pleased by the firestorm Stewart creates winning this race, either. Talk about a post-race interview you want to watch.

Take Kurt Busch (+1123), 1/6th unit. And if it's not Stewart, I think it'll be the older Busch. My opinion is that Busch had the best car in the field in Daytona this February, and that he very well could've won the race had he and Stewart not smacked into one another while jostling for the lead late. Hopefully he learned a little something, which is: don't fight for the lead until the final five laps. Busch has five consecutive Talladega finishes in the top eight, and while he hasn't won a plate race in his career, he's come close on several occasions.

Take Matt Kenseth (+1436), 1/6th unit. This is a value bet, pure and simple. The Hendrick cars (Jeff Gordon (+608) and Jimmie Johnson (+649)) have better chances to win, having already proven they can take plate-track events. But getting Kenseth at this price is too good to pass up, because he's no slouch when it comes to Talladega. His last three finishes here? Fourth, sixth and third. And remember, Kenseth actually had a great chance for the win in the last couple laps at the Daytona 500 (after Stewart and Busch had wrecked), but got taken out by Kyle Busch (+1352) and his over-aggressive racing. Kenseth will win a plate-track race someday, and getting him at better than 14-1 means you can take a chance on him this weekend.

Saturday night under the lights, the Car of Tomorrow gets its first shot at a track longer than a half-mile. However, the one-mile Phoenix International Raceway is so shallowly banked -- 11 and nine degrees in the turns -- that it drives like a smaller track than it is. In fact, the heavy-braking, flat track is an awful lot like Martinsville, where the Smokeless Set ran just a few weeks ago in these very same CoTs. How very convenient.

Who's been strongest in the CoT so far? Well, the temptation is to say Hendrick Motorsports. Kyle Busch won at Bristol, and Jimmie Johnson won at Martinsville, with Jeff Gordon hot on his tail. But those results don't tell the whole story. Tony Stewart easily had the best car at Bristol, and only a fluky mechanical problem that had nothing to do with the CoT itself caused him to lose. At Martinsville, Dale Earnhardt Jr. led the most laps and Stewart's teammate, Denny Hamlin, led the second-most. If you ask me, the best CoT team so far has been Joe Gibbs Racing. They clearly invested a lot of dough in these puppies, and it's showing. We'll see if that trend continues Saturday night.

Last Week: It was a frustrating day deep in the heart of Texas, as our two primary picks, Johnson and Stewart, suffered wrecks at the hands of other, less speedy drivers. Jeff Burton won the event and looked great doing it; he's going to be a threat at a whole lot of races this summer. Anyway, it was a lost day, which means 1.5 units down the tubes. Fortunately, we're still up 1.87 units on the season, on 10.5 units wagered, for a 17.8% return. (If you scrap the conservative betting system outlined below and simply bet one unit per wager, you'd be up 16.67 units so far this year on 28 units wagered, for a 59.5% return. Of course, there's a lot more risk on a weekly basis with that system; for instance, you'd have dropped four units last week.)

Take Jeff Gordon (+385), 1/6th unit. Gordon has never won at Phoenix, one of just three current Nextel Cup venues where he hasn't taken the checkers. Also, this race has never been won from the pole, and Gordon won the pole Friday afternoon. Still, he's a tough guy to ignore in this spot. As I mentioned above, Gordon was coming fast after Jimmie Johnson (+625) at Martinsville, and almost certainly would've won the race if Johnson wasn't his teammate; he didn't want to wreck the #48, so he had to console himself with second place. Gordon still leads in points, and has won four poles already this year, but hasn't won a race. I think that changes Saturday night.

Take Denny Hamlin (+950), 1/6th unit. Hamlin could've easily won both of the first two CoT events, and he qualified third for Phoenix. He was quoted telling reporters that racing at this flat one-miler reminds him of the late-model races he grew up on, and that running under the lights on Saturday will cinch the deal, and take him right back to the minor-league series where he made his bones. Phoenix events have been won from the third starting position on three occasions, which probably doesn't mean much to any but the numerologists among you, but still. The Gibbs CoT program is strong, Hamlin finished third here last fall, and he's due for a win.

Take Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+815), 1/6th unit. Lost amid the excitement of Jeff Burton (+1145) winning his late-race duel with Matt Kenseth (+1250) is the fact that Junior got royally screwed in the Texas event last week. He led the most laps, and obviously had the best car, but got wrecked by Tony Stewart (+745) when Smoke probably shouldn't have even been on the racetrack. The racing gods haven't been kind to Little-E of late, but that could change Saturday night. He's won twice at this place, and ran really well for a time at Martinsville. Look for the #8 to excite some red-clad fans.

Let's cut right to the chase. You can forget about playing the Rockies on the road. In 2006, the Colorado Rockies were 32-49 on the road. In fact, over the past eight seasons, the Rockies are just 239-409 away from Coors Field. Because the Rockies are so poor away from Coors Field, public perception is that the Rockies are a bad team period. However, Colorado has been solid at home and often times the Rockies show great value as a home underdog. At 44-37 at Coors in 2006, the Rockies held the second-best home record in the National League West. As the Rockies' young, talented offense continues to gain experience, we'll expect them improve at Coors Field again in 2007.

The Colorado Rockies improved nine wins from the 2005 to 2006 seasons knotting them with San Francisco and Arizona with 76 wins a piece. The Rockies still have to have to make some strides to avoid having their seventh losing season in a row. A turnaround is taking far longer than Rockies fans would like. Colorado's build-from-within approach may be noble in today's big money game, but it is not the best recipe for success in the short term. How many more losing seasons can the Rockies possible take before GM Dan O'Dowd and Manger Clint Hurdle are out of jobs. The new contracts these guys signed prior to this season were more than a bit of a surprise to me. I feel that buying some talent could be the Rocks only way out.

With Jason Jennings off to Houston, the Rockies' pitching staff is even more thin. Aaron Cook and Jeff Francis will become even more vital parts of this Colorado rotation. Francis has won 27 games in his first two major league seasons and I think he evolves into Colorado's ace. Cook is listed as the Rockies number one man, but his 9-15 record last season doesn't have be convinced. Rodrigo Lopez is a guy with 15-win potential. He has recorded 14 wins or more in three seasons since 2002 in the tough American League East. The National League West could help Lopez to a break out season.

At the plate, Garret Atkins and Matt Holliday will put up lofty power numbers. Todd Helton isn't the old Todd Helton, but he is still a solid stick and will hit behind them in the fifth spot giving Colorado a very respectable middle of the order. Willy Taveras comes over from Houston and brings his .329 career on-base percentage with him. The rest of the order will have to make a name for itself. Kaz Matsui is a guy who could emerge as another contributing force on the offense. He hit safely in 20 of his 24 starts for the Rockies last season.

The Rockies are still young and missing some pieces, but I think they improve again in 2007. Look for the Rockies at home to be a nice play this season.

The 2006 Rockies became the classic example of how cutting payroll and focusing on building from within can result in developing some of baseball's best young talent. The Rockies were in contention at the All-Star break with a 44-40 record, but an 8-game losing streak in mid-season made the Rockies play catch up the rest of the season. They finished tied at the bottom of the National League West with the Arizona Diamondbacks by seasons end with a 76-86 record. It was still an improvement by 9 games from the 2005 season which gives the Rockies high hopes for the 2007 season.

Stellar pitching, typically not possible at Coors Field, defined the 2006 season, but it was offset by almost non-existent run production. The Rockies lost 42 games in which the starter left with three or fewer earned runs allowed. Only a small number of those losses were due to errors or bullpen failures. The starting pitching posted a club-record 4.72 ERA, and the .280 batting average against was second-lowest in team history. They were hurt by inconsistency with runners in scoring position (.267 overall but as low as .200 in May), and had the lowest batting average in baseball from the seventh inning on (.225). These numbers will have to improve tremendously if the Rockies are to compete in 2007.

The Rockies finally got production out of their starting pitching in 2006. Jason Jennings led the charge, posting a 3.75 ERA in 212 innings. Colorado stunned its fans by trading frontline starter Jennings to the Astros for three players, righthanded pitchers Jason Hirsh and Taylor Buchholz and centerfielder Willy Taveras. The 2007 rotation will feature lanky lefthander Jeff Francis and sinkerballing righthander Aaron Cook. Both appear on the verge of big things. Newcomer Hirsch, highly regarded in scouting circles, and Korean submariner Byung-Hyun Kim are solid bets to fill other spots in the rotation. Jeff Fuentes is set to be the closer and he has done a solid job indeed. He finished his second straight season with at least 30 saves and lowered his career BAA to just .229. Latroy Hawkins and Jeremy Affeldt could make or break this team in middle relief. Hawkons was stellar at home with a 2.81 ERA in 30 games but yielded a 6.35 ERA in 30 road games as well. Affeldt pitched well in June, July and, August with under a 3.38 ERA each month, but he allowed 16 earned runs in just 14 inning pitched in September.

The Rockies finalized a deal with veteran 36-year-old catcher Javy Lopez. If the former Braves backstop has anything left he could spell promising young Chris Landetta. The corners of the infield are rock-solid with veteran first baseman Todd Helton and third sacker Garrett Atkins. A constant in the Rockies lineup, Helton continues to churn out .300 seasons. Atkins exploded last season, hitting .329 with 29 home runs and 120 RBIs. Kaz Matsui was a great addition for the Rockies in June of last season. Matsui batted .330 (34-103) in 23 starts as a leadoff hitter for the Rockies. Troy Tulowitzki will be starting at shortstop as a rookie. This guy has come up through the system and should have a very promising future.

The outfield sees new centerfielder Willy Taveras bring his speed at the top of the order to the line-up. The spacious Coors field was much in need of a speedy centerfielder to cover a lot of ground. Matt Holliday and Brad Hawpe are established in left and right respectively. Holliday, who had a breakout '06 campaign, is a classic middle-of-the-order run producer. He batted .326 with 34 homers and 114 RBIs in 2006. Hawpe feasted on RHP with a .302 AVG and a .528 SLG but did not perform as well against LHP with a .232 AVG and a .435 SLG. He needs to work on left handers this offseason and he could have the potential to be nearly as dangerous as Holliday. This team is once again promising and it's hard to predict how they will do this season. We will know a lot after the first month, but if the pitching holds up like it did last season, you may see the Rockies in the postseason for the first time in years.

The Reds finished under .500 for the sixth consecutive season, but just 3.5 games behind the NL Central and World Series Champion St. Louis Cardinals. There is a reason for optimism in Cincinnati under new manager Jerry Narron, who joined new owner Robert Castellini and general manager Wayne Krivsky for their first season in Cincinnati. The Reds stayed in the race for most of the season and were on top of the Wild Card standings in august, but a 2-8 West Coast rip knocked them out of the lead for good. Injuries were a problem yet again as Ken Griffey was limited to 109 games and finished with 27 home runs and 72 RBIs. Krivsky made some big moves in July to bolster the roster. He signed Eddie Guardado from Seattle and made him the team's closer. He sent Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez and Ryan Wagner to the Washington Nationals for Bill Bray, Royce Clayton, Gary Majewski and two minor leaguers.

Cincinnati was moderately active in the offseason, with the addition of Gold Glove shortstop Alex Gonzalez, first baseman/outfielder Jeff Conine and lefthanded reliever Mike Statnton. All three are experienced veterans who know how to win and should accept their roles. The top offseason priority for Krivsky was avoiding arbitration with starting pitcher Aaron Harang, who was 16-11 with a .376 ERA and an NL-leading 216 strikeouts last season and appears to be headed for a big payday. Bronson Arroyo is back and better than ever as a pitcher after his 14-11 record and .329 ERA in 2006. Eric Milton, Kyle Lohse, Matt Belisle and Homer Bailey will compete to fill out the rest of the starting five, with Milton and Lohse most likely earning the Nos. 3 and 4 slots, respectively. Veteran David Weathers will lead a closer-by-committee.

David Ross returns at the catcher position after hitting 21 homers, second among NL catchers, despite his platoon role and an abdominal strain that limited him to 247 AB. Switch-hitter Javier Valentin also should get his share of at-bats after hitting .269 with eight home runs in 186 at-bats. With the signing of shortstop Alex Gonzalez, the Reds have one of the more athletic double play tandems in the NL with Gonzalez and second baseman Brandon Phillips. Phillips had a breakout season last year, hitting .276 with 17 home runs and 25 stolen bases, and he turned in some dazzling plays defensively. Veteran Scott Hatteberg and free agent acquisition Jeff Conine will get the majority of playing time at first base. Young Edwin Encarnacion will occupy third base. Encarnacion reached base in 98 of 117 games and led the Reds in doubles with 33. Alex Gonzalez led all AL shortstops last year with a .985 fielding percentage with seven errors in 475 chances. The infield will be the strong point for Cincinnati without a doubt.

There is no questioning the talent of the outfield either. They just have to stay healthy this season and pray that Ken Griffey can carry the team out in center. He is a question mark during spring training after sustaining a broken hand in an offseason accident at home. Speedy outfielder/infielder Ryan Freel is the motor behind the Cincinnati engine offensively and covers a lot of ground defensively. Leftfielder Adam Dunn has been the talk of many trade rumors but he is staying put this season. He can hit it out of the park with the best the MLB has to offer. We feel that offensively this team can compete with any National League team. Their pitching will make the difference whether or not the Reds have a chance to compete for postseason play. If they have the same ERA they did last season as a staff, there's not a chance in hell.

The first three rounds of the NCAA tournament are complete and thus the Elite Eight is upon us. Every year, the Elite 8 should be consisted of the top 8 teams in college basketball fighting for the National Championship. That is never the case.... until this year. There has yet to be a year in which all #1 and #2 Seeds advance to the Elite 8 but this year is damn close. In previous years, even teams outside the Top 25 Rankings have broke in and ruined all our brackets. For example, last year, #11 Seed George Mason squeezed into the "Elite 8" and even to the Final Four. Two years ago, we had a #4, #5, #6 and a #7 Seed make the "Elite 8". And a #7 and #8 Seed the year before that. The Elite 8 has been anything but in the past years but it's all changed in 2007.

There are eight teams left in the 2007 NCAA Tournament as Saturday morning approaches. As a matter of fact, this has been one of the best tournaments I can remember of any sport. As the Tournament approaches, people are always guessing at who the next underdog might be shaking things up as there always is. No Cinderella's hanging around the Elite 8 this year. In my opinion, there weren't any left after the 2nd round. Note: If you are one of those people that consider Butler and Southern Illinois a "Cinderella team" because they play in a smaller conference with extremely less exposure minus ESPN's Bracket Buster Saturday, you have a ways to go before understanding all the factors of college basketball. Well that, and the fact you are stupid. Butler was 7-2 vs. teams in the tournament with wins over: Old Dominion, Maryland, Purdue, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Indiana and Notre Dame and they also lost a tight one against Southern Illinois who had wins over: Virginia Tech (twice), Creighton, Butler and Holy Cross. They combined for a 12-6 record vs. teams in this year's tournament.

I enjoy as much as anybody else seeing a double digit seed work its way into the Sweet Sixteen or even Elite Eight but isn't it great to actually see the top 8 teams play each other Saturday and Sunday, no #1 vs. #7 or #2 vs. #8 Seed in the Elite Eight. Of the remaining eight teams, 7 are in the Top 10 Final Poll of the 2007 Season along with Oregon at #18 who spent some time in the Top Ten. Never in the history of the Field of 64 Teams has it come down to teams of this caliber. All four #1 Seeds, three #2 Seeds and a #3 Seed are remaining and never has the field been this open with eight teams remaining. This is what the NCAA Tournament should be about every once in a while. Yes, "Cinderella teams" are great but we never get to see the teams that were at the top all year long make it through the tournament. I can't believe it, but the Tournament Committee got it right. Good luck on your brackets, selections and enjoy this rare moment of watching the true Elite 8 of College Basketball.