Thursday, April 19, 2007
Rocky on The Road
Let's cut right to the chase. You can forget about playing the Rockies on the road. In 2006, the Colorado Rockies were 32-49 on the road. In fact, over the past eight seasons, the Rockies are just 239-409 away from Coors Field. Because the Rockies are so poor away from Coors Field, public perception is that the Rockies are a bad team period. However, Colorado has been solid at home and often times the Rockies show great value as a home underdog. At 44-37 at Coors in 2006, the Rockies held the second-best home record in the National League West. As the Rockies' young, talented offense continues to gain experience, we'll expect them improve at Coors Field again in 2007.
The Colorado Rockies improved nine wins from the 2005 to 2006 seasons knotting them with San Francisco and Arizona with 76 wins a piece. The Rockies still have to have to make some strides to avoid having their seventh losing season in a row. A turnaround is taking far longer than Rockies fans would like. Colorado's build-from-within approach may be noble in today's big money game, but it is not the best recipe for success in the short term. How many more losing seasons can the Rockies possible take before GM Dan O'Dowd and Manger Clint Hurdle are out of jobs. The new contracts these guys signed prior to this season were more than a bit of a surprise to me. I feel that buying some talent could be the Rocks only way out.
With Jason Jennings off to Houston, the Rockies' pitching staff is even more thin. Aaron Cook and Jeff Francis will become even more vital parts of this Colorado rotation. Francis has won 27 games in his first two major league seasons and I think he evolves into Colorado's ace. Cook is listed as the Rockies number one man, but his 9-15 record last season doesn't have be convinced. Rodrigo Lopez is a guy with 15-win potential. He has recorded 14 wins or more in three seasons since 2002 in the tough American League East. The National League West could help Lopez to a break out season.
At the plate, Garret Atkins and Matt Holliday will put up lofty power numbers. Todd Helton isn't the old Todd Helton, but he is still a solid stick and will hit behind them in the fifth spot giving Colorado a very respectable middle of the order. Willy Taveras comes over from Houston and brings his .329 career on-base percentage with him. The rest of the order will have to make a name for itself. Kaz Matsui is a guy who could emerge as another contributing force on the offense. He hit safely in 20 of his 24 starts for the Rockies last season.
The Rockies are still young and missing some pieces, but I think they improve again in 2007. Look for the Rockies at home to be a nice play this season.
Labels: baseball, betting, Colorado Rockies, Dave Price, mlb, procappers, professional handicappers league, sports
Friday, April 13, 2007
2007 Colorado Rockies Preview
The 2006 Rockies became the classic example of how cutting payroll and focusing on building from within can result in developing some of baseball's best young talent. The Rockies were in contention at the All-Star break with a 44-40 record, but an 8-game losing streak in mid-season made the Rockies play catch up the rest of the season. They finished tied at the bottom of the National League West with the Arizona Diamondbacks by seasons end with a 76-86 record. It was still an improvement by 9 games from the 2005 season which gives the Rockies high hopes for the 2007 season.
Stellar pitching, typically not possible at Coors Field, defined the 2006 season, but it was offset by almost non-existent run production. The Rockies lost 42 games in which the starter left with three or fewer earned runs allowed. Only a small number of those losses were due to errors or bullpen failures. The starting pitching posted a club-record 4.72 ERA, and the .280 batting average against was second-lowest in team history. They were hurt by inconsistency with runners in scoring position (.267 overall but as low as .200 in May), and had the lowest batting average in baseball from the seventh inning on (.225). These numbers will have to improve tremendously if the Rockies are to compete in 2007.
The Rockies finally got production out of their starting pitching in 2006. Jason Jennings led the charge, posting a 3.75 ERA in 212 innings. Colorado stunned its fans by trading frontline starter Jennings to the Astros for three players, righthanded pitchers Jason Hirsh and Taylor Buchholz and centerfielder Willy Taveras. The 2007 rotation will feature lanky lefthander Jeff Francis and sinkerballing righthander Aaron Cook. Both appear on the verge of big things. Newcomer Hirsch, highly regarded in scouting circles, and Korean submariner Byung-Hyun Kim are solid bets to fill other spots in the rotation. Jeff Fuentes is set to be the closer and he has done a solid job indeed. He finished his second straight season with at least 30 saves and lowered his career BAA to just .229. Latroy Hawkins and Jeremy Affeldt could make or break this team in middle relief. Hawkons was stellar at home with a 2.81 ERA in 30 games but yielded a 6.35 ERA in 30 road games as well. Affeldt pitched well in June, July and, August with under a 3.38 ERA each month, but he allowed 16 earned runs in just 14 inning pitched in September.
The Rockies finalized a deal with veteran 36-year-old catcher Javy Lopez. If the former Braves backstop has anything left he could spell promising young Chris Landetta. The corners of the infield are rock-solid with veteran first baseman Todd Helton and third sacker Garrett Atkins. A constant in the Rockies lineup, Helton continues to churn out .300 seasons. Atkins exploded last season, hitting .329 with 29 home runs and 120 RBIs. Kaz Matsui was a great addition for the Rockies in June of last season. Matsui batted .330 (34-103) in 23 starts as a leadoff hitter for the Rockies. Troy Tulowitzki will be starting at shortstop as a rookie. This guy has come up through the system and should have a very promising future.
The outfield sees new centerfielder Willy Taveras bring his speed at the top of the order to the line-up. The spacious Coors field was much in need of a speedy centerfielder to cover a lot of ground. Matt Holliday and Brad Hawpe are established in left and right respectively. Holliday, who had a breakout '06 campaign, is a classic middle-of-the-order run producer. He batted .326 with 34 homers and 114 RBIs in 2006. Hawpe feasted on RHP with a .302 AVG and a .528 SLG but did not perform as well against LHP with a .232 AVG and a .435 SLG. He needs to work on left handers this offseason and he could have the potential to be nearly as dangerous as Holliday. This team is once again promising and it's hard to predict how they will do this season. We will know a lot after the first month, but if the pitching holds up like it did last season, you may see the Rockies in the postseason for the first time in years.
Labels: baseball, Colorado Rockies, handicapping, mlb, procappers, professional handicappers league, William Young
