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Talladega isn't the greatest place to get off a losing streak.

Not that we're technically on a losing streak; we had Jeff Gordon winning last Saturday night's Phoenix event, which he did, as a +385 favorite. But in an excruciating turn of events, Dale Earnhardt Jr. got caught on in the pits during a late caution, went a lap down, and wound up losing his head-to-head match-up against Greg Biffle, who didn't have nearly the car Junior did, and who trailed the #8 all night. Drat.

So we lost a little money, and now we head to the 'Dega, probably the sport's most random site. It's random, of course, because the Big One is never more than a few laps away: the giant wreck that takes out half the field, since the cars all ride so impossibly close together at 190 mph with restrictor plates on their carburetors. The favorites can lead all day, as did Tony Stewart and Kurt Busch in this year's Daytona 500, only to get slam-drafted late and see the afternoon go up in a puff of tire smoke. It's nerve-rattling for us; imagine how crazy it is for the drivers themselves.

Anyway, we can but try. Here are the best bets for the Aaron's 499 from Talladega.

Last Week: Gordon's win couldn't overcome Junior's terrible luck (which he's now experienced two weeks running), meaning we dropped 0.38 units on 1.5 units wagered. For the season, then, we stand a positive net 1.49 units on 12 units wagered, a return of 12.4%. Note also that if you eschew the conservative betting scheme I outline below, and simply place one unit on every wager I recommend, for the year you'd be up 17.52 units on 32 units wagered, for a 54.8% return. As always, though, be aware that that betting scheme is far riskier on a week-to-week basis.

Take Tony Stewart (+403), 1/6th unit. Smoke is the favorite Sunday for a reason. He had close to the best car at Daytona, but wrecked from the lead and wound up 43rd. Leading up to last fall's Talladega event, he'd finished second in three consecutive races here, though he'd never won. Stewart made all kinds of noise this week about how NASCAR is essentially fixing races by creating phantom cautions in advance of green-flag pit stops, thereby bringing the field together again for late restarts. NASCAR isn't pleased about that, and they won't be pleased by the firestorm Stewart creates winning this race, either. Talk about a post-race interview you want to watch.

Take Kurt Busch (+1123), 1/6th unit. And if it's not Stewart, I think it'll be the older Busch. My opinion is that Busch had the best car in the field in Daytona this February, and that he very well could've won the race had he and Stewart not smacked into one another while jostling for the lead late. Hopefully he learned a little something, which is: don't fight for the lead until the final five laps. Busch has five consecutive Talladega finishes in the top eight, and while he hasn't won a plate race in his career, he's come close on several occasions.

Take Matt Kenseth (+1436), 1/6th unit. This is a value bet, pure and simple. The Hendrick cars (Jeff Gordon (+608) and Jimmie Johnson (+649)) have better chances to win, having already proven they can take plate-track events. But getting Kenseth at this price is too good to pass up, because he's no slouch when it comes to Talladega. His last three finishes here? Fourth, sixth and third. And remember, Kenseth actually had a great chance for the win in the last couple laps at the Daytona 500 (after Stewart and Busch had wrecked), but got taken out by Kyle Busch (+1352) and his over-aggressive racing. Kenseth will win a plate-track race someday, and getting him at better than 14-1 means you can take a chance on him this weekend.

Saturday night under the lights, the Car of Tomorrow gets its first shot at a track longer than a half-mile. However, the one-mile Phoenix International Raceway is so shallowly banked -- 11 and nine degrees in the turns -- that it drives like a smaller track than it is. In fact, the heavy-braking, flat track is an awful lot like Martinsville, where the Smokeless Set ran just a few weeks ago in these very same CoTs. How very convenient.

Who's been strongest in the CoT so far? Well, the temptation is to say Hendrick Motorsports. Kyle Busch won at Bristol, and Jimmie Johnson won at Martinsville, with Jeff Gordon hot on his tail. But those results don't tell the whole story. Tony Stewart easily had the best car at Bristol, and only a fluky mechanical problem that had nothing to do with the CoT itself caused him to lose. At Martinsville, Dale Earnhardt Jr. led the most laps and Stewart's teammate, Denny Hamlin, led the second-most. If you ask me, the best CoT team so far has been Joe Gibbs Racing. They clearly invested a lot of dough in these puppies, and it's showing. We'll see if that trend continues Saturday night.

Last Week: It was a frustrating day deep in the heart of Texas, as our two primary picks, Johnson and Stewart, suffered wrecks at the hands of other, less speedy drivers. Jeff Burton won the event and looked great doing it; he's going to be a threat at a whole lot of races this summer. Anyway, it was a lost day, which means 1.5 units down the tubes. Fortunately, we're still up 1.87 units on the season, on 10.5 units wagered, for a 17.8% return. (If you scrap the conservative betting system outlined below and simply bet one unit per wager, you'd be up 16.67 units so far this year on 28 units wagered, for a 59.5% return. Of course, there's a lot more risk on a weekly basis with that system; for instance, you'd have dropped four units last week.)

Take Jeff Gordon (+385), 1/6th unit. Gordon has never won at Phoenix, one of just three current Nextel Cup venues where he hasn't taken the checkers. Also, this race has never been won from the pole, and Gordon won the pole Friday afternoon. Still, he's a tough guy to ignore in this spot. As I mentioned above, Gordon was coming fast after Jimmie Johnson (+625) at Martinsville, and almost certainly would've won the race if Johnson wasn't his teammate; he didn't want to wreck the #48, so he had to console himself with second place. Gordon still leads in points, and has won four poles already this year, but hasn't won a race. I think that changes Saturday night.

Take Denny Hamlin (+950), 1/6th unit. Hamlin could've easily won both of the first two CoT events, and he qualified third for Phoenix. He was quoted telling reporters that racing at this flat one-miler reminds him of the late-model races he grew up on, and that running under the lights on Saturday will cinch the deal, and take him right back to the minor-league series where he made his bones. Phoenix events have been won from the third starting position on three occasions, which probably doesn't mean much to any but the numerologists among you, but still. The Gibbs CoT program is strong, Hamlin finished third here last fall, and he's due for a win.

Take Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+815), 1/6th unit. Lost amid the excitement of Jeff Burton (+1145) winning his late-race duel with Matt Kenseth (+1250) is the fact that Junior got royally screwed in the Texas event last week. He led the most laps, and obviously had the best car, but got wrecked by Tony Stewart (+745) when Smoke probably shouldn't have even been on the racetrack. The racing gods haven't been kind to Little-E of late, but that could change Saturday night. He's won twice at this place, and ran really well for a time at Martinsville. Look for the #8 to excite some red-clad fans.

Let's cut right to the chase. You can forget about playing the Rockies on the road. In 2006, the Colorado Rockies were 32-49 on the road. In fact, over the past eight seasons, the Rockies are just 239-409 away from Coors Field. Because the Rockies are so poor away from Coors Field, public perception is that the Rockies are a bad team period. However, Colorado has been solid at home and often times the Rockies show great value as a home underdog. At 44-37 at Coors in 2006, the Rockies held the second-best home record in the National League West. As the Rockies' young, talented offense continues to gain experience, we'll expect them improve at Coors Field again in 2007.

The Colorado Rockies improved nine wins from the 2005 to 2006 seasons knotting them with San Francisco and Arizona with 76 wins a piece. The Rockies still have to have to make some strides to avoid having their seventh losing season in a row. A turnaround is taking far longer than Rockies fans would like. Colorado's build-from-within approach may be noble in today's big money game, but it is not the best recipe for success in the short term. How many more losing seasons can the Rockies possible take before GM Dan O'Dowd and Manger Clint Hurdle are out of jobs. The new contracts these guys signed prior to this season were more than a bit of a surprise to me. I feel that buying some talent could be the Rocks only way out.

With Jason Jennings off to Houston, the Rockies' pitching staff is even more thin. Aaron Cook and Jeff Francis will become even more vital parts of this Colorado rotation. Francis has won 27 games in his first two major league seasons and I think he evolves into Colorado's ace. Cook is listed as the Rockies number one man, but his 9-15 record last season doesn't have be convinced. Rodrigo Lopez is a guy with 15-win potential. He has recorded 14 wins or more in three seasons since 2002 in the tough American League East. The National League West could help Lopez to a break out season.

At the plate, Garret Atkins and Matt Holliday will put up lofty power numbers. Todd Helton isn't the old Todd Helton, but he is still a solid stick and will hit behind them in the fifth spot giving Colorado a very respectable middle of the order. Willy Taveras comes over from Houston and brings his .329 career on-base percentage with him. The rest of the order will have to make a name for itself. Kaz Matsui is a guy who could emerge as another contributing force on the offense. He hit safely in 20 of his 24 starts for the Rockies last season.

The Rockies are still young and missing some pieces, but I think they improve again in 2007. Look for the Rockies at home to be a nice play this season.