Thursday, June 21, 2007

Sports Betting Tips - How to Bet on Futures

You may or may not have already learned that future bets are wagers placed far in advance of a sporting event after reading our Overview of Sports Gambling Bet Types. The basics are all there, so the purpose of this article is to explain why futures offer such strong value and give tips on improving your chances to win when betting futures.

The main advantage of futures is that you can get appealing odds by betting when oddsmakers first release them or well before an event is decided. For example, placing a future wager on the Kentucky Derby a month ahead of time can get you a much better price on a horse than betting much closer to the race when the real contenders are revealed for all to see. Future odds are not set and can be adjusted by sportsbooks periodically, but the odds at the time of your wager are the odds you are locked into.

A futures bet example with major team sports would be NFL futures, where you often can get much higher odds on a team by betting before the season starts. An NFL future bet on a team to win the Super Bowl might be 20/1 in the preseason, but by midseason, those odds might decrease to 10/1 if the team turns out to be a legitimate championship contender.

It's important to note that sportsbooks can change futures at any time, and they are available to be bet all the way until the event gets underway. Future bets are also not restricted to the championship game, as you can bet on who will win a conference or division too.

Future bets in NFL and college football, NBA and college basketball and MLB baseball are team-oriented in that you bet on the team's performance while proposition bets on non-team future events that involve individuals like boxing, tennis, golf and NASCAR are also available. Keep in mind that with futures you are always betting that the event will happen, on whether the team will accomplish something such as a championship and not against their chances of doing so. For example, if Duke is 5/1 to win the NCAA Basketball Championship, you can bet $100 on Duke and will win $500 if they win it all - but with standard future betting you cannot bet against Duke winning it all.

Tips to Win

The key to betting futures is realizing their true value and using the right Tips to Win. The most important consideration is determining what changes a team has made to enhance their chances of vying for a championship like the Super Bowl or World Series. Draft choices, coaching changes, free-agent signings, trades and returning starters all impact a team's ability to compete, so each aspect should be considered when making your future bet.

The Draft
The draft is a much bigger factor in NBA basketball and NFL football since a rookie can approach superstar status much earlier (i.e. LeBron James) than other sports like MLB baseball where it can take years for players to develop. Of course the way the drafts are structured, the weaker teams almost always select players higher than the stronger teams. However, elite teams like the San Antonio Spurs and New England Patriots are well-known for making the most of their picks despite poor draft positioning.

Player Movement
Nothing has changed the landscape of sports over the past 20 years more than free agency. Superstars like Shaquille O'Neal can simply walk away at the end of their contracts, forcing their teams to decide the likelihood of their re-signing and potentially trading them before their contracts are up to get something in return.

O'Neal is a perfect example to examine since he left the Orlando Magic as a free agent to join the Los Angeles Lakers in 1996, leaving the Magic with nothing in return. Eight years later, he forced the Lakers to trade him to the Miami Heat so the Lakers could get something in return while he was still under contract since he made it known he would not re-sign with them.

O'Neal's status changed the balance of power between the Eastern and Western Conference in both situations, with the Heat becoming serious title contenders in his first year with the team. A smart NBA futures bettor would have put money on the Heat to win the NBA title or Eastern Conference right after the trade was made.

In NBA basketball and MLB baseball, the midseason trade deadline could also be very critical to a team's improvement. The New York Yankees tried very hard to yank ace pitcher Randy Johnson from the Arizona Diamondbacks at the 2004 deadline and probably would have won the World Series if they had done so. Instead, they were forced to wait until the offseason to make the trade for Johnson and didn't have enough pitching to get past the Boston Red Sox, who went on to win the World Series.

In college football and basketball, there is the added dimension of a team's returning starters. Graduation or early defection of players to the pros play a critical role in the team's makeup for the next season and should be examined. However, while losing a Heisman Trophy winner like quarterback Carson Palmer in 2003 seemed to be a blow to USC's chances of winning a national title, it also allowed another Heisman Trophy winner to shine in Matt Leinart, so not all losses hurt an NCAA program.

Timing is everything with player movement. Sometimes these moves pay off, sometimes they don't, but they often seem to give teams a fighting chance in bettor's minds and make future bets more interesting.

Coaching Moves
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers made big news during the 2002 offseason when they pried Jon Gruden away from the Oakland Raiders to be their head coach. Tampa Bay management felt like they had the right players in place and just needed the right person to put all the pieces together and lead the way.

After a series of hiring mishaps, including the failed recruitment of coaching legend Bill Parcells, Gruden turned out to be their man and proved to be the difference. It wasn't cheap since it cost the Buccaneers a number of draft picks and money, but nobody could argue it wasn't worth the price when they won their first Super Bowl. The best futures price on the Bucs turned out to be before the regular season started and the full impact of Gruden was felt in Tampa and throughout the rest of the NFL.

Measuring True Value

Once you put all of the Tips to Win together, you need to try to measure the true value of a team's future bet chances. But your perception of how well a team will perform and how you interpret the significance of the Tips to Win will determine whether or not a team is worth betting on.

Sometimes a team comes along like the 1999 St. Louis Rams, who won the Super Bowl that year despite entering the season as a longshot at incredible 200/1 odds. When such longshots come in it demonstrates another strong appeal of future bets, that a fan can make a small bet on a longshot, enjoy following their results all season, and just maybe cash a huge ticket! A safer approach is to pick a playoff team or one that just missed out from the previous year and made some smart moves to turn them into a contender.

Betting the preseason favorite like last year's champs is a bit risky since their odds are already so low and a lot more money would need to be wagered to make it worthwhile. However, there is still some value in instances like this if you feel strongly that they can go deep into the playoffs again. The further they go, the smaller their odds will likely get along the way and the more value you will have by betting far in advance.

That's the bottom line with any futures bet - the true value comes down to how you feel about a team compared to the oddsmaker's projections. If your Tips to Win point to a team worth betting on and that team ultimately follows through, you'll have a rooting interest all season long and will get the very most out of your futures wager!

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Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Mastering The Curveball - Basic Preparation

Only a very few hitters manage to hit the great curveball. The skill of hitting a curveball can take anyone to the hall of fame.

There is some basic preparation needed to master the curveball. Therefore, if you wish to master the great curveball, you should first learn how to prepare for it.

In other words, you ought to have your own personal curveball strategy. That is, you need to have a definite battle plan.

Following are the things you should know before you plan your strategy:

• Who is the pitcher?

• The type of pitches he has.

• The kind of command he has over his pitches.

Make sure that your preparation starts before the game begins. Having the scouting reports will be an obvious added advantage.

But, bear in mind that the scouting reports need not be always correct. It is essential to take a note of what the pitcher has that day.

Also, do not forget to position yourself in a place from where you can see the opposing pitcher warming up. This should be done much before the game begins. At this point of time, it is essential to keep the following in mind:

• The pitches you would like to hit.

• The angle the release point is coming from.

• The best pitches of the pitcher and the pitches that are not under his control.

Here are some tips and guidelines:

• You should never do the mistake of swinging at a pitch you have not seen. You should take a pitch if you are hitting up in the order.

• On the other hand, if you are hitting down in the order, you should watch what the pitcher gave to the previous hitters who were like you.

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Thursday, June 14, 2007

Online Poker Has Plenty to go Around, so Get Yours Now

Each and every day there is over $22.4 million dollars being won by poker players, no different from you. All this money is just laying idle, waiting for someone of skill and know-how to take it. The best part about it is that there are more new poker players than ever at the tables, helplessly handing over their chips to superior players. Although you may have once considered yourself to be one of these new players, it doesn't have to be that way.

Since we already established that we are in to poker in order to make money, the key in order to make money is to be able to make it day after day. What would be the point of winning $1,200.00 one day only to be down $1,400.00 the next? While it may be difficult some times, there are a few methods that can help you avoid that, and keep your profits coming.

With all of the choices of games to play, it's hard to know what is the right choice for you. Everyone is always fans of tournament games, perhaps due to the excitement incited by bigger pots or more people, but that does not matter whatsoever. In my opinion, you should NEVER play in tournament games. There are simply too many different people that you will encounter, too many variables, and too little odds that you will win for it to be profitable. In addition most of the tournament players online are more experienced, which is exactly what you don't want.

The next obvious question which needs to be answered is "What IS the right type of game to play?" The type of game which has proven itself to lend an ideal environment for consistent and high winning percentages is revealed along with much more winning strategy and information at www.untoldpokersecrets.com. In order to win more than you already are, you need to change something. Continuing to play as you are will continue to get you the results you have, and if you're happy with those results - don't change a thing!

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Tuesday, June 12, 2007

Holdem Poker Hands Explained

When playing hold'em poker the idea of the game is to make the best hand of 5 cards you can by using all of the cards that are available to you. There are ten different types of hands you can make; these "hands" are also the same for other card games. Here are the ten possible hands you can make; they are listed in order of rank.

The Royal Flush


In poker this is the best hand you can get. It is a combination of the 5 highest cards. This would be 10, jack, queen, king and ace all of the same suit. In holdem poker it is possible for two players to have this hand at any one time, in this case they would tie and the pot is split between the players.

The straight flush


This is the next best hand to a royal flush; once again the cards must all be of the same suit and in running numerical order. The highest possible straight flush you can have would be a King straight. This would be 9, 10, jack, queen, king. The player with the highest flush wins, and in the case of two players having the same cards the pot is split between them.

Four of a Kind


This is fairly self-explanatory, any four cards of the same number, for example 4 queens. If two or more players have 4 of a kind the player with the highest cards is the winner, for example four 6's would beat four 2's, Aces are counted as the high cards.

A Full House


Any three cards of the same value and a pair of matching cards is a full house. This is three of one and two of the other for example 3 kings and 2 eights. If one or more player has a full house the outcome is decided by who ever has the highest three of a kind.

A Flush


A flush consists of any five cards of the same suit in none running order. If one or more players has a flush the winner is the person with the highest card, an Ace flush is the highest you can get. If one or more players has the exact same high card it can sometimes goes to your next highest card.

A Straight


Any five cards in a consecutive running order, aces can be used as both high or low cards. The person with the highest card is the winner. Once again in case of two or more players having the same hand the pot is split.

Three of a Kind


Any three cards of the same face value for example three kings or three sevens.

Two Pair


Any two sets of paired cards, for example, 2 kings and 2 fours. If two players hands have the same high pair, the second pair then decides it. If both pairs are the same, the player with the highest card wins.

Pair


Any two cards of the same face value.

High Card


Finally if no other hand is possible the highest card wins, ace is counted as a high card.

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Monday, June 11, 2007

Beating Blackjack - Easier Then You Think

Beating Blackjack

Beating blackjack is a lot easier then you might think. With a little practice and some patience anyone can beat the game of blackjack.

Card Value and Card Count

First you need to learn how to count cards, don't worry this is very easy to do! Any card 2-6 you give a value of +1, 7-9's have a value of 0 and 10-A's you give a value of -1. Low valued cards (2-6) are good for the house, high valued cards 10-A are good for you the player and 7-9 is pretty much neutral.

How card counting works is, while the dealer is dealing look at every card that gets dealt and in your mind start adding a subtracting your 1's and -1's. The easiest way to do this quickly is to really pay attention to the second card that is dealt out to everyone, if there is a 10 and a 3 they cancel each other out and the total is 0. Example: Lets say that seat #1 has 2 and 7, seat #2 has J and 4, seat #3 has 10 and 8, seat #4 has 3 and 4 and the dealer and a Q showing. What is the count? Seat #1 has +1, seat #2 has 0, seat #3 has -1, seat #4 has 2 and the dealer has -1. The running count is +1.

The higher the running count or the further in the "+" values the more you should bet because the game has shifted your way. Remember the more 10's-A's in the deck the better odds you will win, the more 2's-6's in the deck the odds shift to the house. So if the running count starts to reach 10 or more than you need to start adjusting your bet, bet more per hand.

Betting Size and Bankroll

Your betting unit should be at most 1/1000 of your bankroll.
Your bankroll is how much money you are willing to lose without going crazy.
For each session your cash on hand should be at least thirty-two betting units. Example: If you want to bet $10 a hand, you should bring as least $320.
If you lose half your bankroll, then drop your betting units by half.
If you win half your bankroll (total $480) then raise your betting units 1 ½ times (to $25).
By constantly adjusting your betting unit, you will never go broke, and your bankroll will increase in the long run.

Maximum Bet

Your maximum bet should be at least 4 times your betting unit. For example, your maximum be would be $40.
Never bet more than ¼ of the money on you, on one round, because you want to have enough money to split and double down if the option becomes available.

Optimal Betting

Keep a Running Count.


Approximate the number of decks remaining.
Divide the Running Count by the number of decks remaining; this is called the True Count. If your Running Count is 8 and there is 2 decks left, then your True Count is 4.
Subtract 1 from the True Count to determine how many units to bet. In this example you will bet 3 units; multiply the number of units to bet (3 in this example) by your betting unit ($10), you will bet $30 on this hand.
Play two hands and bet that amount ($30) per hand; if you are the only player at the table, or you can only play one hand, bet 25% more on one hand.

If your running count is less than 0, bet as little as you can without drawing too much attention to your bet, sit out if you can.

If you take some time and practice these strategies before you sit down at that Blackjack table in the casino you will walk away a winner. Practice at home with your friends and family. Take a deck of cards and practice counting; if you count out a whole deck you should have 0 when you are done. Try it, its great practice.

Good luck and have fun!

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Friday, June 08, 2007

Online Poker Tournaments

The most famous poker tournament in the world is the W.S.O.P, but the best tournaments online make this type of experience and excitement more accessible. All poker tournaments have a buy-in which is exchanged for a set amount of chips. All players begin with the same amount of chips, and players compete for a specified prize structure. Tournaments provide a fair game and are a value for money option. However, you must make sure the tournament chosen reflects your skill level, playing style and requirements.

Poker tournament definitions are universal and easy to understand. A sit-and-go tournament is played on a single table, which begins once the seats are filled. These are relatively quick tournaments, and have a set prize structure, usually paying the top three places. A multi-table tournament is much larger in size, with many tables in play. It has a specified start time, and can take hours to play. Players are moved randomly as numbers get low, culminating in a final table. The prize structure is much bigger in multi-table tournaments, reflecting the larger number of buy-ins.

Freerolls are tournaments that do not require a buy-in, but that offer cash prizes or seats into other tournaments. They are popular and fill up fast, but definitely worthwhile. Satellites are low cost tournaments that offer seats into more expensive tournaments and can some of the best tournaments online. They are a cost effective way of earning fantastic prizes, such as a seat to a live event such as the WSOP. A freeze-out tournament means that once you have lost your chips you are out of the tournament. A rebuy tournament allows you to buy more chips and stay in play. A turbo tournament is a tournament that has accelerated blinds, making it faster paced and much more aggressive.

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Wednesday, June 06, 2007

Sports Betting - Unit Size, Bankroll And Fiscal Period

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Monday, June 04, 2007

No Limit Texas Holdem Strategy - After the Flop Specific Hands

When you flop a draw – When you have a straight or a flush draw in No Limit Texas Holdem, it's very important to know who you are playing against. Good players make it unworthy to chase for a draw. Therefore if you have a drawable hand, calculating the pot odds is very important.

You should consider the following:

1. If you are getting good pot odds up to your entire bankroll, try to be the bettor and not the caller.
2. If you are in an early position you should usually check and call only if the pot odds are worth it.

Remember that even though a flush has more outs than an open ended straight, 9 compared to 8, you are more likely to get called once you catch your straight than after you make the flush.

When you flop top pair – You should bet your strong hands but remember that many of the big loses occur when a player falls in love with his top pair and won't let go. If a good player calls your bet or raised it, you should consider folding.

When you flop two pairs – Because you probably have the best hand, you should carefully consider what the odds are that the next card will make someone else's hand better, before deciding how much to bet. If you have the bottom two pairs, bet very aggressively because a lot of cards can make your hand worthless. On the other hand, if you have the top two pairs and no flush or straight are possible, you can be less aggressive letting another player get the second best hand.

When you flop a set – If you have a pocket pair, the odds of getting a set or better are about 12%. If you do get your set, your primary goal will be to make the other players put their money into the pot. Sometimes the best timing is right after the flop and sometimes you should slow-play till the river. This depends on the board and the players you are up against. You should bet against tight players and slow-play against loose aggressive players. You should bet when there is a flush or straight draw no matter who you are up against.

When flopping a straight – It's very important to recognize the different kinds of straights. You could flop the best straight possible, if you have King Queen and the board is Jack, Ten and a 9. You can have the worst straight possible, if you have 75 and the board is 986 which is pretty vulnerable. And you can have other kinds of straights. The things you should consider are:

1. How likely are the next cards going to hurt your hand? For example if the board has two or three of the same suit you should bet more aggressively.
2. How big is the pot and what are your opponents pot odds? For example, if you have T8 and the flop is Qh, Jh, 9s. if someone is going for a flush draw than he is getting about 36% to win by the river, therefore you should bet half of the pot size to make his call not worthy.
3. How many players are you up against – as the number gets higher, bet more aggressively.

When you flop a flush – If you have the nuts (the best flush possible), you can slow-play and let other players get the second best hand or induce a bluff. When you don't have the nuts, you should bet at least half of the pot, so if someone is going for the nut flush he would have to overpay in order to get it.

When flopping a monster – A full house, four of a kind, or a straight flush – On these rare occasions slow-play and let others make second best hands.

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Saturday, June 02, 2007

What Is The Most Profitable Online Casino Game?

Not all games are the same.

This is one of the most often asked questions when it comes to online casinos. What game should I play to make the most money? Where am I likely to loose less.

The problem is that it is an almost impossible question to answer because casinos make it difficult to decide by changing the rules of the game while marketing them as the same.

Blackjack for example, has so many variants that it is hard to call blackjack the most profitable game of them all.

There is, Pontoon, Spanish 21, doubling down any number of cards, rescue, (or surrender), payout bonuses for five or more card 21's, 6-7-8 21's, 7-7-7 21's, late surrender, and player blackjacks always winning and player 21. In Asia, the so called, Chinese Blackjack is very popular, (splitting is different).

Another popular game amongst online gamblers are slot machines, they can offer payouts ranging from 70% to 99%. Granted most well known online casinos would never offer a slot game that paid less than 95%. So that would make slots the most profitable game... if you knew in advance what the percentage payout was, many forums/websites claim to know the percentage, but one wonders how they arrived at that number in the first place, (the casinos will either lie or not give the actual payouts).

Because the payouts are not advertised it is very difficult for a user to reliably choose a slot.

Progressive slots also don't pay as much because the casino has to build funds for the end bonus, (ranging from $10.000 to $1.000.000 and more).

Craps is also a mis-leading game, the "pass line" bet, which wins for a new shooter who rolls a 7 or 11, loses on a 2, 3, or 12, and on any other number requires him to roll that number (his point) again before rolling a 7, has an even money payoff that delivers a 1.41% edge to the house. The single-roll bets are just ridiculous: an 'any 7' bet pays 4:1 and gives the house a whopping 16% edge.

Roulette has two popular versions, the European version has 37 slots with a single 0; the American version has an extra slot, a 00 to make 38.

The house advantage is 2.7% For European and 5.26% for the American table.

So the choice is simple if you must play roulette, play European!

But as a whole roulette is not such a safe bet, (and some 'sure way' techniques like Martingale method make is downright dangerous to play).

They change the rules all the time.

Remember also that certain rules changes are employed to create new variant games.

These changes actually increase the house edge in these games. But they are cleverly worded to give the opposite impression to the unsuspecting players.

Double Exposure Blackjack is a variant in which the dealer's cards are both face-up.

This game increases house edge by paying even money on blackjacks and players losing ties.

Double Attack Blackjack has very liberal blackjack rules and the option of increasing one's wager after seeing the dealer's up card.

And the winner is?

Classic blackjack in most its forms is usually the game that offers the best returns.

With correct basic strategy, a Spanish 21 almost always has a higher house edge than any comparable Blackjack game.

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