Friday, April 13, 2007

2007 Colorado Rockies Preview

The 2006 Rockies became the classic example of how cutting payroll and focusing on building from within can result in developing some of baseball's best young talent. The Rockies were in contention at the All-Star break with a 44-40 record, but an 8-game losing streak in mid-season made the Rockies play catch up the rest of the season. They finished tied at the bottom of the National League West with the Arizona Diamondbacks by seasons end with a 76-86 record. It was still an improvement by 9 games from the 2005 season which gives the Rockies high hopes for the 2007 season.

Stellar pitching, typically not possible at Coors Field, defined the 2006 season, but it was offset by almost non-existent run production. The Rockies lost 42 games in which the starter left with three or fewer earned runs allowed. Only a small number of those losses were due to errors or bullpen failures. The starting pitching posted a club-record 4.72 ERA, and the .280 batting average against was second-lowest in team history. They were hurt by inconsistency with runners in scoring position (.267 overall but as low as .200 in May), and had the lowest batting average in baseball from the seventh inning on (.225). These numbers will have to improve tremendously if the Rockies are to compete in 2007.

The Rockies finally got production out of their starting pitching in 2006. Jason Jennings led the charge, posting a 3.75 ERA in 212 innings. Colorado stunned its fans by trading frontline starter Jennings to the Astros for three players, righthanded pitchers Jason Hirsh and Taylor Buchholz and centerfielder Willy Taveras. The 2007 rotation will feature lanky lefthander Jeff Francis and sinkerballing righthander Aaron Cook. Both appear on the verge of big things. Newcomer Hirsch, highly regarded in scouting circles, and Korean submariner Byung-Hyun Kim are solid bets to fill other spots in the rotation. Jeff Fuentes is set to be the closer and he has done a solid job indeed. He finished his second straight season with at least 30 saves and lowered his career BAA to just .229. Latroy Hawkins and Jeremy Affeldt could make or break this team in middle relief. Hawkons was stellar at home with a 2.81 ERA in 30 games but yielded a 6.35 ERA in 30 road games as well. Affeldt pitched well in June, July and, August with under a 3.38 ERA each month, but he allowed 16 earned runs in just 14 inning pitched in September.

The Rockies finalized a deal with veteran 36-year-old catcher Javy Lopez. If the former Braves backstop has anything left he could spell promising young Chris Landetta. The corners of the infield are rock-solid with veteran first baseman Todd Helton and third sacker Garrett Atkins. A constant in the Rockies lineup, Helton continues to churn out .300 seasons. Atkins exploded last season, hitting .329 with 29 home runs and 120 RBIs. Kaz Matsui was a great addition for the Rockies in June of last season. Matsui batted .330 (34-103) in 23 starts as a leadoff hitter for the Rockies. Troy Tulowitzki will be starting at shortstop as a rookie. This guy has come up through the system and should have a very promising future.

The outfield sees new centerfielder Willy Taveras bring his speed at the top of the order to the line-up. The spacious Coors field was much in need of a speedy centerfielder to cover a lot of ground. Matt Holliday and Brad Hawpe are established in left and right respectively. Holliday, who had a breakout '06 campaign, is a classic middle-of-the-order run producer. He batted .326 with 34 homers and 114 RBIs in 2006. Hawpe feasted on RHP with a .302 AVG and a .528 SLG but did not perform as well against LHP with a .232 AVG and a .435 SLG. He needs to work on left handers this offseason and he could have the potential to be nearly as dangerous as Holliday. This team is once again promising and it's hard to predict how they will do this season. We will know a lot after the first month, but if the pitching holds up like it did last season, you may see the Rockies in the postseason for the first time in years.

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