Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Should You Ever Fold Pocket Aces Before the Flop?

Pocket aces are the most powerful starting hand in Texas Hold 'Em. They will always start out ahead of any other hand that any of your opponents could possibly have. But is there ever a time when the best play is to fold this monster before the flop? Read on to find out.

The answer to this question, as is the case with just about any question relating to the game of poker, depends on what sort of situation you find yourself in. We first have to consider whether or not we are playing in a cash game or in a tournament.

In a cash game, I can not really think of a situation where it would be prudent to fold pocket aces prior to seeing a flop. Keep in mind, however, that the more opponents you happen to be involved in a pot against, the more your odds of winning are lessened. For example, if you are in a pot heads-up with pocket aces, your hand is a 4:1 favorite against any other pocket pair, a slightly larger favorite over any two live undercards, and a 9:1 favorite against any other ace. If you happen to be in a pot with four opponents, however, your edge could drop as low as 70% or even lower, depending on what your opponents hold. Still a sizeable advantage, yes, but not as much as you would enjoy heads-up.

But let's take a look at a tournament scenario. Allow me to recap a situation I occurred at a local tournament I played in recently.

We arrived at the 9-person final table after starting out with 80 people. I was exactly in the middle, with four stacks larger than me and four stacks smaller. However, of the four smaller stacks, three of them were basically on life support, and would only last a round or two before they got blinded out of the tournament. On the second hand of this final table, I was in the big blind, and I looked down to see two red aces staring back at me. Immediately, my mind was trying to figure out exactly how much I'd raise when the action got around to me. But a funny thing happened on the way to my chips.

The player under the gun, one of the aforementioned smaller stacks, pushed all-in. So did another short stack immediately after. To top it off, the last of the three smallest stacks pushed all-in as well.

I had all of these players covered, and had this been a cash game, I would have shoved all-in as well. But this is a tournament, so I took the payout structure into account. A ninth-place finish would have netted me $224. A nice win (almost three times the tournament buy-in), but if I let these three players kill each other off, I could almost guarantee myself a sixth-place finish, which would give me a prize of $416.

I don't know about you, but I'll take $416 over $224 every single time. So, I threw my aces into the muck and let the other three players have at it. It was a good thing I did, as the biggest of the three stacks made a straight on the turn. He tripled-up in that hand, but had I stayed in, he could have quadrupled up and gotten himself back in the game. As it was, that triple-up still left him significantly behind me and the sixth-place player at the time.

The object of poker is not to dazzle people with your brilliant play. The object is to bring home as much money as possible. Every play you make should be geared towards meeting that goal. If that means throwing away a monster hand before the flop, even pocket aces, it's a move you should definitely consider.

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